Let’s start with what is most important: The business model. Our view is the next two decades (or more) is the era of the superior business model.
Here’s why: We’ve had more than 3 decades of being in the grip of tech. Any good business with a strong technology underpinning would have a high chance of success. Across this time frame the cost of building a great tech business has dropped to 1/10th of the cost it was 30 years ago. As such, the advantage that used to be bestowed upon strong tech business is no longer.
The 2020s and 2030s will be dominated by businesses powered by better business models.
And we should know. We’ve have spent four years decoding better business models. Download our report on Better Business Models report here.
However… a business model is not enough. Macroeconomics matters. Don’t worry, we’re not about to give you a lesson in world economics, however trend spotting and understanding where markets will be in 5-10 years out is very important.
A key way macroeconomic forecasting comes to bear is looking at specific themes. These are broader than industries and may indeed go across multiple sectors. Think of themes as much closely aligned with the markets—and what matters in the end is who will buy and how much.
Agri, Food & Nutrition:
Growing environments and media, Devices, Monitoring. Garden in the city. Food & food processing. Nutritional services and supplements. Food as medicine. Publishing, media, distribution.
The driver across the board is premiumisation caused by large groups of aﬄuent consumers across multiple territories.
Life Sciences & Bio:
Diagnostics, Devices, Equipment, Natural Supplements and Therapies. We see a world that is increasingly aware of remaining healthful as opposed to falling ill.
A world where diabetes is controlled with an app, not with injections, and so forth.
The Ageing Population:
Care, Services, Food, Travel & Activities, Staying Healthy, Devices, Media.
As this generation has ‘lived the life’ there is an increasing need for rejuvenation, along with activation and engagement.
Healthy, Beautiful & Fit:
Devices, Services, Supplements, Lotions & Potions, Media
A very broad market slated to continue its astounding growth due to the massively growing aﬄuent middle class of BRIC countries and far beyond.
Recycling technologies, climate change technologies, ecology restoration technologies, clean energy fractionalisation and tech, waste reduction, composting, recyclable packaging.
Standout disruptive innovation:
Exceptional solutions, typically patent backed and technology oriented.